STPA - Predicting Genetic Outcomes: Probability and Inheritance

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STPA - Predicting Genetic Outcomes: Probability and Inheritance

Grade 9Biology3 days

This 9th-grade biology project focuses on using probability and genetic principles to predict and understand the transmission of traits and variations in offspring. Through activities like creating Punnett Squares and statistical plots, students explore inheritance patterns and the influence of DNA on traits. The project aligns with NGSS standards and aims to deepen students' understanding of genetic principles, probability application, and data analysis. Students engage in collaborative and reflective processes to enhance their comprehension of genetic variation and inheritance.

GeneticsProbabilityInheritancePunnett SquaresData AnalysisStatistical MethodsBiology

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Inquiry Framework

Question Framework

Driving Question

The overarching question that guides the entire project.How can we use probability and genetic principles to accurately predict and understand the traits and variations in the offspring of specific organisms?

Essential Questions

Supporting questions that break down major concepts.

What is probability and how can it be used to predict genetic outcomes?
How do genes determine the traits of an organism?
How does inheritance work, and what patterns can be predicted in genetic crosses?
In what ways do DNA and genetic variations affect the traits expressed in a population?
How is statistical data used to understand and predict genetic variations within a population?

Standards & Learning Goals

Learning Goals

By the end of this project, students will be able to:

Understand and apply the principles of probability to predict genetic outcomes.
Describe the process of inheritance and how traits are passed from parents to offspring.
Analyze the role of DNA and genes in determining the traits of an organism.
Use statistical methods to predict and interpret genetic variations within a population.
Communicate and justify predictions and findings related to genetic traits using scientific reasoning.

NGSS

HS-LS3-3

Primary

Apply concepts of statistics and probability to explain the variation and distribution of expressed traits in a population.Reason: The project involves using probabilities to predict genetic outcomes, directly applying statistical concepts to genetic trait variations.

SCI.LS3.A.h

Primary

DNA carries instructions for forming species' characteristics. Each cell in an organism has the same genetic content, but genes expressed by cells can differ.Reason: Understanding how traits are inherited is directly related to how DNA carries genetic information and how genes are expressed.

HS-LS3-1

Secondary

Ask questions to clarify relationships about the role of DNA and chromosomes in coding the instructions for characteristic traits passed from parents to offspring.Reason: This standard aligns with exploring how DNA and chromosomes are fundamental in inheritance, a core aspect of the project.

HS-LS4-1

Supporting

Communicate scientific information that common ancestry and biological evolution are supported by multiple lines of empirical evidence.Reason: This standard supports understanding genetic variation and inheritance patterns over a population.

Common Core Math Standards

HSS-ID.A.1

Supporting

Represent data with plots on the real number line (dot plots, histograms, and box plots).Reason: Students may need to represent genetic data statistically, which aligns with representing data using statistical plots.

Entry Events

Events that will be used to introduce the project to students

Genetic Lottery

Kick off the project with a 'Genetic Lottery' event, where students receive a mystery 'genetic code' card that assigns them traits randomly. This simulates genetic inheritance and probability, sparking curiosity about how traits are passed down and challenging students to investigate their own family traits and differences.

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Portfolio Activities

These activities progressively build towards your learning goals, with each submission contributing to the student's final portfolio.

Activity 1

Dihybrid Cross Dynamics

In this activity, students explore genetic outcomes using dihybrid crosses, deepening their understanding of inheritance with two pairs of contrasting traits. Through analyzing these crosses, students can predict phenotypic and genotypic ratios using probability statistics.

Steps

Here is some basic scaffolding to help students complete the activity.

1. Select two contrasting genetic traits from the 'Genetic Code Mapping' activity.

2. Research how these traits are inherited through dihybrid crosses.

3. Construct dihybrid Punnett Squares to explore genetic combinations involving both traits.

4. Calculate phenotypic and genotypic ratios and probabilities using the dihybrid Punnett Squares.

5. Discuss and compare the results with classmates to understand different inheritance patterns.

Final Product

What students will submit as the final product of the activityDihybrid Punnett Squares illustrating predicted genetic outcomes and their respective phenotypic and genotypic ratios.

Alignment

How this activity aligns with the learning objectives & standardsSupports HS-LS3-1 and HS-LS3-3 by expanding on genetic inheritance using complex statistical methods for two traits.

Activity 2

Punnett Square Predictions

Students will use Punnett Squares to predict the probability of different genetic traits in offspring, applying concepts of probability and genetic inheritance.

Steps

Here is some basic scaffolding to help students complete the activity.

1. Select a pair of genetic traits from the 'Genetic Code Mapping' activity to focus on.

2. Research how these traits can be inherited using Mendelian genetics principles.

3. Construct Punnett Squares to explore possible genetic combinations and calculate probabilities.

4. Discuss the outcomes as a class, focusing on real-world applications and predicted variations.

Final Product

What students will submit as the final product of the activityPunnett Squares illustrating predicted genetic outcomes and their probabilities.

Alignment

How this activity aligns with the learning objectives & standardsSupports HS-LS3-1 and HS-LS3-3 by clarifying genetic inheritance through statistical methods.

Activity 3

Data Representation Relay

In this activity, students will represent their predicted genetic outcomes as data plots to visually interpret genetic variations using statistical methods.

Steps

Here is some basic scaffolding to help students complete the activity.

1. Review results from the 'Punnett Square Predictions' to select data for statistical analysis.

2. Choose appropriate statistical plots (dot plots, histograms, or box plots) to represent your data.

3. Organize and plot the data accurately, ensuring clarity in representing genetic outcomes.

4. Analyze the plotted data to draw conclusions about genetic trait distributions and variations.

Final Product

What students will submit as the final product of the activityStatistical plots that visually represent genetic data gathered from Punnett Squares.

Alignment

How this activity aligns with the learning objectives & standardsAligns with HSS-ID.A.1 as students use statistical plots to represent genetic data and variations.

Activity 4

Genetic Code Mapping

Students will create a map of genes and traits using genetic codes provided during the 'Genetic Lottery' event, allowing them to visualize how different genes determine traits.

Steps

Here is some basic scaffolding to help students complete the activity.

1. Review the genetic code cards received during the 'Genetic Lottery' and identify unique genes.

2. Research each gene to determine the associated trait it influences.

3. Create a visual map linking each gene to its specific trait.

4. Discuss in groups about how similar or different their maps are and what factors could influence these differences.

Final Product

What students will submit as the final product of the activityA visual genetic map linking genes to traits, showcasing individual differences.

Alignment

How this activity aligns with the learning objectives & standardsAligns with HS-LS3-3 as students apply genetic concepts to visualize variation in traits.

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Rubric & Reflection

Portfolio Rubric

Grading criteria for assessing the overall project portfolio

Genetic and Probability-Based Inheritance Rubric

Category 1

Conceptual Understanding

Assesses students' understanding of genetic principles and the role of probability in predicting inheritance patterns.

Criterion 1

Genetic Principles

Evaluate the understanding of inheritance, genetic variation, and how genes determine traits.

Exemplary

4 Points

Demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of genetic principles, including complex inheritance patterns and interactions between genes.

Proficient

3 Points

Demonstrates thorough understanding of basic genetic principles and inheritance patterns.

Developing

2 Points

Shows emerging understanding of genetic principles with some misconceptions about inheritance.

Beginning

1 Points

Shows initial understanding with significant gaps in knowledge of genetic principles and inheritance.

Criterion 2

Probability Application

Evaluate the student's ability to apply probability concepts to predict genetic outcomes effectively.

Exemplary

4 Points

Applies probability concepts innovatively to accurately predict and justify all genetic outcomes.

Proficient

3 Points

Applies probability concepts effectively to predict genetic outcomes with logical justification.

Developing

2 Points

Applies probability concepts inconsistently with partial understanding to predict genetic outcomes.

Beginning

1 Points

Struggles to apply probability concepts accurately to predict genetic outcomes.

Category 2

Analytical Skills

Assesses the ability to analyze genetic data using statistical methods and draws accurate conclusions.

Criterion 1

Data Representation

Evaluate how well students create and interpret statistical plots to represent genetic data.

Exemplary

4 Points

Creates sophisticated and clear statistical plots that accurately represent genetic data and allows for deep analysis and conclusions.

Proficient

3 Points

Creates clear statistical plots that effectively represent genetic data, allowing for reasonable analysis and conclusions.

Developing

2 Points

Creates basic statistical plots with some inaccuracies or lack of clarity in representing genetic data.

Beginning

1 Points

Struggles to create coherent statistical plots and fails to represent genetic data accurately.

Category 3

Collaborative Engagement

Evaluates student's ability to effectively engage and contribute in group discussions and activities.

Criterion 1

Collaboration and Communication

Measure the effectiveness of student interactions and contributions during group work.

Exemplary

4 Points

Exhibits leadership and enhances group collaboration through insightful, clear, and respectful communication.

Proficient

3 Points

Contributes effectively and communicates clearly and respectfully within group settings.

Developing

2 Points

Participates in group work but does not consistently communicate effectively or contribute meaningfully.

Beginning

1 Points

Participates minimally in group settings and struggles to communicate or collaborate effectively.

Reflection Prompts

End-of-project reflection questions to get students to think about their learning

Question 1

Reflect on how the use of probability has enhanced your understanding of genetic outcomes. What specific concepts or activities helped solidify this understanding?

Text

Required

Question 2

Rate your confidence in using Punnett Squares to predict genetic outcomes before and after this project.

Scale

Required

Question 3

Which activity (e.g., Genetic Lottery, Dihybrid Cross Dynamics) had the most impact on your comprehension of inheritance patterns, and why?

Multiple choice

Required

Options

Genetic Lottery

Family Tree Treasure Hunt

Dihybrid Cross Dynamics

Punnett Square Predictions

Data Representation Relay

Genetic Code Mapping

Question 4

Reflect on the role DNA plays in determining traits and variations that you explored in this project. Have your views on genetic inheritance evolved, and if so, how?

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Required

Question 5

How effective were the statistical plots in helping you interpret genetic variation data? Provide examples from your work.

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Required